Don’t just find a bet. Understand the case.
Sportsbooks give you a line. Carve shows how that line compares with its own fair estimate, then the matchup evidence and the strongest reason the bet could fail. Where no sportsbook has posted a complete price, it says so.
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How Carve thinks
Carve ranks the board by where the price looks wrong.
Start with the games worth researching instead of opening twenty tabs and hoping a trend matters.
One workflow, every market
Research the bet you actually want to make.
Carve is not a feed of random picks. Search a player, team, or game—or scan the full board—and move from the number to the reasoning without changing tools.
Sport coverage
MLB is researched in 15 player categories; sportsbook prices are connected for 6 of them. NHL and football are not open to members yet. See exactly what is covered
Player Props
Search a player and compare recent hit rates, matchup splits, and the model’s case.
02Moneyline
See which side Carve leans, the fair price, and why the market may be mispricing the game.
03Game Totals
Research the over or under through projected scoring, starters, bullpens, park, and weather.
04Team Totals
Research previewIsolate one offense instead of accepting the assumptions hidden inside the full-game number.
05NRFI / YRFI
Break down first-inning risk from confirmed lineups, starting pitchers, and top-of-order strength.
What Carve does
Six things most bettors piece together manually.
Carve runs them automatically, so you see the full picture before you bet.
Player prop research
Last 5, last 10, season splits. How a player performs against this pitcher, this defense, in this ballpark.
Live with MLB
Situational splits
Home vs. away, day vs. night, on extra rest, vs. left- or right-handed pitching.
Live with MLB
Weather and park factors
Wind, temperature, stadium dimensions, and altitude — factored in before you look at a line.
Live with MLB
Lineup change tracking
When a lineup changes after it's confirmed, Carve flags exactly who's in or out and adjusts prop confidence accordingly.
Live with MLB
Bankroll sizing
Tell Carve your bankroll and risk appetite. It tells you how much to bet — no guessing, no gut feeling.
Live with MLB
Post-game decision audit
Carve grades your decisions after games close — not just wins and losses. Good bets that lose still teach you something.
Live with MLB
Cash Out Analyzer · Beta
Got a bet in play? Upload the slip.
Carve reads your ticket, checks current sportsbook prices for the legs still to play, and compares cashing out, riding and hedging — showing what you would receive, what is at risk and why, in plain numbers.
- Built around bet365 and DraftKings slips; other sportsbooks often work too.
- If a leg can’t be checked, Carve says so instead of guessing.
- Analytical guidance, not financial advice.
In private beta: for now it is limited to the account owner, and asks you to sign in.
How Carve prices a bet
Two numbers, and the gap between them.
A sportsbook price implies a probability. Carve’s model estimates its own, independently, from the same kind of evidence an analyst would use. When the two disagree by enough to matter, that gap is the edge — and Carve shows you the reasoning behind it, not just the number. It shows an edge only for a verified, current sportsbook price; with no complete price it says “No verified sportsbook line”.
Market price
What the sportsbook is offering right now, converted to an implied probability. This is what everyone else sees.
Model probability
Carve’s own estimate, built from matchup history, park and weather factors, lineup and pitcher reliability — evaluated on its own merits, before comparing it to the price.
Verified odds and data quality
Every number is labeled with where it came from.
A stale price or a thin sample can look identical to a fresh, well-supported one — until you’re expected to trust it. Carve labels every figure honestly instead of quietly assuming the best case.
Browse → Explorer → Decision Intelligence
See the whole decision, not just a line.
Browse the slate, open a player or matchup to explore the full evidence, then read Decision Intelligence’s honest take on whether there’s real value — case for, case against, and what would change the model’s mind.
Browse
T. Soderstrom
O 0.5 Hits
S. Kwan
O 0.5 Hits
Y. Alvarez
O 0.5 Hits
Explorer
Tyler Soderstrom — Hits
O/U 0.5 · vs. TB · Game Log (L10)
Alternate Lines · Splits & Matchup · Line vs. Probability
Decision Intelligence
Over 0.5 Hits
LeanRecent form and a favorable park factor support the over. The market hasn’t fully priced in the pitcher’s platoon split — a modest, not decisive, edge.
Bankroll
Risk appetite
Bankroll sizing
Tonight, bet this much.
Carve calculates the right wager based on your bankroll and how aggressive you want to be. No spreadsheet required.
What Carve is — and isn’t
Carve supports your analysis. It doesn’t guarantee outcomes.
No model, including this one, can promise a result. What Carve can do is show its work — the evidence, the confidence, and the counterargument — so every bet is a decision you understand, not a number you’re trusting blindly. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.
A good decision can still lose
Recap grades whether a bet was well-reasoned given what was knowable at the time — not just whether it won. A well-supported pick that loses and a lucky guess that wins are graded differently, on purpose.
No confidence that isn't earned
Carve doesn't show a number it can't back with a real, checkable signal. Missing or thin data degrades to an honest "limited" state instead of a number invented to fill the gap.
Disagreement is explained, not asserted
When Carve's read differs from the obvious pick, it shows the reasoning — what the naive view misses, and what would have to be true for the model to be wrong.
Pricing
Start free. Stay as long as it’s working.
Monthly
$29
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