Know why the bet
makes sense tonight.
Carve is a baseball reasoning engine, not a prediction model. It surfaces the context sportsbooks ignore — weather, park factors, lineup changes, recent form — and explains where the model and the market disagree, so you can decide with the full picture.
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MLB markets covered
Player Props
LiveHits, home runs, strikeouts, and more — with the full evidence trail.
Moneyline
LiveWin probability, market efficiency, and where the price is soft.
Game Totals
LiveOver/Under with a real run-distribution model, not a coin flip.
Team Totals
LiveOne side's total runs, isolated from the other team's offense.
NRFI / YRFI
LiveFirst-inning run direction from starting-pitcher quality and offense.
What Carve does
Six things most bettors piece together manually.
Carve runs them automatically, so you see the full picture before you bet.
Player prop research
Last 5, last 10, season splits. How a player performs against this pitcher, this defense, in this ballpark.
Live with MLB
Situational splits
Home vs. away, day vs. night, on extra rest, vs. left- or right-handed pitching.
Live with MLB
Weather and park factors
Wind, temperature, stadium dimensions, and altitude — factored in before you look at a line.
Live with MLB
Lineup and injury impact
When a key player scratches, Carve shows who benefits — automatically, without you doing the math.
Live with MLB
Bankroll sizing
Tell Carve your bankroll and risk appetite. It tells you how much to bet — no guessing, no gut feeling.
Live with MLB
Post-game decision audit
Carve grades your decisions after games close — not just wins and losses. Good bets that lose still teach you something.
Live with MLB
How Carve prices a bet
Two numbers, and the gap between them.
A sportsbook price implies a probability. Carve’s model estimates its own, independently, from the same kind of evidence an analyst would use. When the two disagree by enough to matter, that gap is the edge — and Carve shows you the reasoning behind it, not just the number.
Market price
What the sportsbook is offering right now, converted to an implied probability. This is what everyone else sees.
Model probability
Carve’s own estimate, built from matchup history, park and weather factors, lineup and pitcher reliability — evaluated on its own merits, before comparing it to the price.
Verified odds and data quality
Every number is labeled with where it came from.
A stale price or a thin sample can look identical to a fresh, well-supported one — until you’re expected to trust it. Carve labels every figure honestly instead of quietly assuming the best case.
Browse → Explorer → Decision Intelligence
See the whole decision, not just a line.
Browse the slate, open a player or matchup to explore the full evidence, then read Decision Intelligence’s honest take on whether there’s real value — case for, case against, and what would change the model’s mind.
Browse
T. Soderstrom
O 0.5 Hits
S. Kwan
O 0.5 Hits
Y. Alvarez
O 0.5 Hits
Explorer
Tyler Soderstrom — Hits
O/U 0.5 · vs. TB · Game Log (L10)
Alternate Lines · Splits & Matchup · Line vs. Probability
Decision Intelligence
Over 0.5 Hits
LeanRecent form and a favorable park factor support the over. The market hasn’t fully priced in the pitcher’s platoon split — a modest, not decisive, edge.
Bankroll
Risk appetite
Bankroll sizing
Tonight, bet this much.
Carve calculates the right wager based on your bankroll and how aggressive you want to be. No spreadsheet required.
What Carve is — and isn’t
Carve supports your analysis. It doesn’t guarantee outcomes.
No model, including this one, can promise a result. What Carve can do is show its work — the evidence, the confidence, and the counterargument — so every bet is a decision you understand, not a number you’re trusting blindly. Past performance doesn’t predict future results.
A good decision can still lose
Recap grades whether a bet was well-reasoned given what was knowable at the time — not just whether it won. A well-supported pick that loses and a lucky guess that wins are graded differently, on purpose.
No confidence that isn't earned
Carve doesn't show a number it can't back with a real, checkable signal. Missing or thin data degrades to an honest "limited" state instead of a number invented to fill the gap.
Disagreement is explained, not asserted
When Carve's read differs from the obvious pick, it shows the reasoning — what the naive view misses, and what would have to be true for the model to be wrong.
Pricing
Start free. Stay as long as it’s working.
Monthly
$29
per month · $6.75/wk — save 25%
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